Russian political analysts doubt possibility for escalation in Karabakh conflict zone

In the near future, the Karabakh conflict zone will continue to face the confrontation with the possible involvement of new areas; however, a serious escalation is unlikely to take place. This was reported by Russian political analysts questioned by the "Caucasian Knot".

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that the escalation in the conflict zone took place at night on February 25. According to the Azerbaijani party, Armenian soldiers attacked its territory; the attack was repulsed resulting in five killed Azerbaijani soldiers. In their turn, the spokesmen of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh assert that Azerbaijan tried to make a diversion. According to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the bodies were found in the neutral territory, not in the area controlled by Azerbaijan.

According to Alexander Karavaev, Deputy Director of the Centre for Study of former Soviet Union territory of the Information and Analytical Centre of the Moscow State University (MSU), the deterioration of the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone might be connected with the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2017 in Armenia.

"Its scale cannot be compared with the situation of the last April. However, the losses are quite high and include five people from the Azerbaijani side and unknown number of victims from the Armenian side," believes Alexander Karavaev.

Although the parties build up arms, the expert rules out a serious escalation of the conflict in the Azerbaijani-Armenian contact.

"Russian experts have recently conducted a private discussion, during which they forecasted the probability of recurrence of the conflict on the scale of the last April or even more. Different opinions were voiced; however, in general, the experts concurred that a larger conflict than in the last April would unlikely take place, since after the incident, the balance of power was generally restored thanks to the influence of Russia, including due to the supply to Armenia of military equipment, in particular, of missile complex 'Iskander'," said the expert.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.