Baku analysts treat escalation of border conflict with Armenia as unlikely

There are no serious preconditions for Azerbaijan to switchover to full-scale military operations on the border with Armenia; this topic is deliberately exaggerated by Armenian politicians in connection with the upcoming parliamentary elections, military analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" believe.

The “Caucasian Knot” has reported that on June 5, the Armenian MoD announced the Armenian military personnel were forced to open pre-emptive fire after the Azerbaijani soldiers tried to build fortifications on the Armenian side of the border.

A Reserve Colonel Shair Ramaldanov, an Azerbaijani military expert, doubts the likelihood of border incidents escalating into a large-scale conflict. He believes that the topic of "border disputes" is being pumped up by Armenia. "Now, the country is in a difficult post-war situation, amid which it holds its parliamentary elections. The forces that are striving for power use relations with Azerbaijan as their bargaining chip, and are trying to get the maximum number of votes for their revanchist ideas; and border issues are inflated," he said.

Mr Ramaldanov believes that Azerbaijan has no intent to deepen into the Armenian territory; therefore, no conflict escalation from Baku can be expected.

Border issues are overinflated by the Armenian party, agrees Togrul Djuvarly, a member of the Azerbaijan National Public Committee for European Integration (ANPCEI).

He believes that in this way Armenia seeks to remove the topic of establishing the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border out of the agenda. "The recognition of the state border of Azerbaijan will mean recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as a part thereof by Yerevan," he told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

Besides, this topic is used by Armenian political forces in their pre-election struggle, Mr Djuvarly has added.

He treats a large-scale military conflict on the border as unlikely. "Most likely, after the parliamentary elections, in which, in my opinion, Pashinyan will win, tensions will subside," he believes.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on June 7, 2021 at 11:24 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.