Baku analysts assess impact of war in Ukraine on Azerbaijan

Experts have disagreed on whether Vladimir Putin had warned Ilham Aliev at their meeting in Moscow about an imminent attack on Ukraine. Aliev is forced to take into account the Russia's position, since there is a Russian military contingent in Karabakh, analysts report.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that on February 22, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliev, signed a Declaration on Allied Interaction.

Aliev and other presidents of post-Soviet countries, excluding Zelensky, could have been warned by Putin about his intentions in Ukraine, since it was important for Moscow to know the opinion of its allies in order to secure its environment during the days of the war, Natik Djafarli, an analyst, wrote on the Meta social network.

In his opinion, the Ukrainian events and Putin's recognition of the independence of the eastern districts of Ukraine may increase the courage of Stepanakert that will decide that they also have grounds for recognition by Putin.

Akhmed Alili, the director of the Caucasus Centre for Political Analysis, does not believe in Putin's warning Aliev about the imminent war in Ukraine. He does not believe that the events in Ukraine will affect Baku's policy in Karabakh and Russia.

In his turn, Shain Djafarli, an analyst, believes that Putin could warn Aliev about the imminent military offensive in Ukraine. In this regard, Aliev signed the above Declaration on Allied Relations with Russia in order to prevent a repetition in Karabakh of the Russia's scenario used in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Donetsk and Lugansk, Mr Djafarli believes.