Russian political experts: oath sworn by "Imarat Kavkaz" militants to leader of "Islamic State" will not affect the situation in Northern Caucasus

The oath sworn by individual militants of "Imarat Kavkaz", which is treated as terrorist organization in Russia, to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the so-called "Islamic State", proclaimed in the territory of Syria and Iraq, does not mean the accession to this structure; therefore, it will not have any serious consequences for the situation in Northern Caucasus, Russian political analysts Alexei Malashenko and Akhmet Yarlykapov believe.

The "Caucasian Knot" has reported that Suleiman Zailanabidov, one of the commanders of Aukh militants, acting in the territory of the Khasavyurt District of Dagestan, after being accused by his supporters of splitting, sworn to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the "Islamic State" (earlier the ISIS), located in Syria and Iraq. Zailanabidov himself told about it in a video posted on the Internet on November 21.

According to Alexei Malashenko, a member of the Scientific Board of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, so far, the "Islamic State" has no prospects in the Caucasus.

"The fact that the leader of Aukh militants has sworn is a sort of declaration, and, if you want, a reaction to the threats addressed by al-Baghdadi to Putin of spreading his actions to Northern Caucasus (in September, militants of the ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) spread an appeal to Vladimir Putin on the Internet, threatening to take control over Chechnya and the entire Caucasus, – note of the "Caucasian Knot"). But I don’t think that so far it's serious, although there's nothing good in it either. The ISIL has huge ambitions, at least in words," Alexei Malashenko told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

According to Malashenko, the ISIL is not popular in the Caucasus due to especially brutal behaviour of its members.

The "Islamic State" has its goal to expand; however, the accession to it of militants of "Imarat Kavkaz", which has been recognized a terrorist organization in Russia and which has no control over any essential territory, is out of question, said Akhmet Yarlykapov, a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Ethno-Political Studies of the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He noted that earlier there was no recognition of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the leader of militants in Northern Caucasus; and now we can talk only about individual cases, which, of course, may be an expression of a tendency, or just reflect the position of individual field commanders.

"Look, what's going on with the Taliban (the Islamist movement active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, regarded by the UN as a terrorist organization, – note of the "Caucasian Knot"). As far as I know, there are rather influential commanders who have sworn to the ISIL, but in general, the position of the Taliban is that they in no way join the Caliphate," Akhmet Yarlykapov has summed up.

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.